The Q4 holiday rush, traditionally the busy season for the promotional products industry, may look drastically different this year.

According to the National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker, the flow of goods at major U.S. ports is expected to steadily decline throughout the rest of 2025 due to the toll that tariffs have taken on imports.

Although imports rose in July as companies tried to get ahead of threatened tariffs, August is projected to be down 1.7% compared to 2024.

The declines for the next four months are expected to be even steeper:

  • September is forecast at 2.12 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units, down 6.8% year-over-year
  • October at 1.95 million TEU, down 13.2%
  • November at 1.74 million TEU, down 19.7%
  • December is forecast at 1.7 million TEU, down 20.1% year-over-year for the slowest month since 1.62 million TEU in March 2023.


“There’s a lot of uncertainty in the market right now, and the ocean freight industry doesn’t do well with uncertainty,” says John Janson, vice president of global logistics at SanMar – PPAI 100’s No. 1 supplier, which accounted for an estimated $4.2 billion in revenue in 2024.

There’s a lot of uncertainty in the market right now, and the ocean freight industry doesn’t do well with uncertainty.”

John Janson

VP of Global Logistics, SanMar

“Carriers have learned that to make money they need to control capacity, so they’re removing capacity from the market right now to drive up some of the costs. The fourth quarter will be very interesting in the ocean arena because there’s not going to be enough freight, and carriers will have to respond to that.”

More Issues On The Horizon

In addition to importers contending with reduced capacity, the United States will begin charging port fees on China‐manufactured ships starting October 14.

  • After facing strong opposition, including from PPAI, during a public hearing, the office of the United States Trade Representative changed its approach to proposed remedies under its Section 301 investigation on China shipbuilding.
  • Concerns raised during the hearing were increased costs, supply chain disruption, impact on agriculture and a lack of direct benefit to U.S. shipbuilding.
  • Many pointed out that the U.S. shipbuilding sector lacks capacity to replace Chinese-built vessels anytime soon, making the policy more punitive than productive.


The new fees for Chinese vessel owners and operators are:

  • $50 per net ton for the arriving vessel, effective Oct. 14, 2025
  • $80 per net ton for the arriving vessel, effective April 17, 2026
  • $110 per net ton for the arriving vessel, effective April 17, 2027
  • $140 per net ton for the arriving vessel, effective April 17, 2028
  • There are also per-container fees.


Fees on China-built vessels from non-Chinese carriers are lower and also feature a per-container charge. The per-ton fees are:

  • $18 per net ton, effective Oct. 14, 2025
  • $23 per net ton, effective April 17, 2026
  • $28 per net ton, effective April 17, 2027
  • $33 per net ton, effective April 17, 2028


With this going into effect in less than a month, Janson says carriers are scrambling to prepare. “Many carriers aren’t even sure how they’re going to charge for this,” he says. “We think it could be anywhere between $120-$200 a container. That’s another thing that’s going to change capacity. If a carrier like CMA removes all of its Chinese-manufactured vessels from U.S. trade, that’s a significant impact to the ocean marketplace.”

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Janson adds that because SanMar has built long-term strategic relationships with carriers, it’s well positioned to endure the impact of global supply chain disruption. “SanMar plays the long game,” Janson says. “We don’t jump and move volume around from one place to another with carriers, so we get really good support from our carriers.”

However, the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy is “making it impossible” for companies across all industries to make the long-term plans critical to future business success, according to Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy.

“These tariffs and disruptions to the supply chain are adding costs that will ultimately lead to higher prices for American consumers,” Gold said.

Tariff Side Effects

Ben Zhang, president and CEO of Greater Pacific, PPAI 100’s No. 68 supplier, believes port traffic is likely to remain slow through the rest of 2025 for the following reasons:

  • Retailers have largely stocked up for the holiday season.
  • Because U.S. agricultural exports to China have diminished, China has strengthened its supply chains with Argentina and Brazil for soybeans and other crops due to tariff pressures. This slower export growth isn’t helping port traffic either.
  • However, the 2026 Chinese New Year falls in February, so Zhang anticipates some port activity in January and February for non-retail imports.


“The tariff increases have raised our cost of doing business, as they have for millions of other American companies,” says Zhang, whose company has an office in Shanghai and sources roughly 70% of its products from China.

“Profit margins have narrowed significantly versus prior years. However, our revenue remains steady in Q2 and Q3 this year, albeit not growing.”

Ben Zhang headshot
The tariff increases have raised our cost of doing business, as they have for millions of other American companies.”

Ben Zhang

President/CEO, Greater Pacific

Ariel Premium Supply, PPAI 100’s No. 10 supplier, is one of many firms that stocked up on inventory ahead of anticipated tariff increases in August.  

Even though some tariff deadlines have been extended, this only prolongs the uncertainty, which means buying decisions continue to be impacted across all industries. Furthermore, in addition to increased rates, tariffs have had multiple impacts on business, according to Yuhling Lu, CEO of Ariel Premium Supply.

“Changes in regulations, compliance and admin requirements have changed the way we import now,” Lu says. “Customs now requires the separation of component materials, like aluminum and steel, in order to apply accompanying various tariff rates.

Changes in regulations, compliance and admin requirements have changed the way we import now.”

Yuhling Lu

CEO, Ariel Premium Supply

“Something as small and simple as a stress reliever key chain or carabiner, made partly with steel or aluminum, is subject to the higher tariff rate based on the percentage of the product using the material. Each component must be called out separately, which causes some delays in clearance.”

Another factor affecting global logistics is the elimination of the de minimis exemption in the U.S.

  • As a result, any items shipped through the international postal network will be subject to tariff rates based on the value of the package and its country of origin.


Ending the exemption is expected to have a significant impact on the promotional products industry, according to Alok Bhat, market economist, research and public affairs lead at PPAI.

“The industry relies on global supply chains to deliver affordable, customized products across business, education, healthcare and community initiatives,” Bhat says. “Without de minimis, small, low-value shipments will face additional fees, customs delays and more paperwork.

Alok Bhat headshot
Without de minimis, small, low-value shipments will face additional fees, customs delays and more paperwork.”

Alok Bhat

Market Economist, Research & Public Affairs Lead, PPAI

“Disruptions are already emerging. Postal services in countries including Australia, India, UK, Germany and Austria have suspended shipments to the U.S. due to uncertainty around the new rules. That means orders many businesses depend on may be delayed or may not arrive at all. For companies of every size, these changes could raise costs, complicate timelines and limit access to branded products.

For small businesses in particular, it may mean the difference between taking part in programs or being priced out.”

What Will The Supreme Court Rule?

On September 9, the Supreme Court approved President Trump’s request for a speedy review to decide whether he has authority to institute sweeping global tariffs within the context of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

  • This should set off a series of filings starting with the government’s opening brief due September 19, followed by the plaintiffs that challenged the tariffs and the government’s reply by the end of October. Oral arguments are expected the first week of November.


On August 29, an appeals court confirmed an earlier ruling that the global tariffs were illegal and that Trump’s position as president does not grant him such authority to impose taxes on all countries.

  • The tariffs were kept in place until mid-October, however, as the ruling anticipated an appeal to the Supreme Court.
  • Sure enough, in response, the solicitor general asked the Supreme Court in a petition to grant a review of the August 29 ruling, and on Sept. 9 the court agreed to undertake an expedient review.


The most recent ruling only prolonged the uncertainty that has become typical of 2025 for businesses navigating the tariff roller coaster as it affects supplying chain pricing. However, the Supreme Court represents the highest court in the nation, so a final ruling and possible resolution could be on the horizon.