Your sales team may be doing some forecasting in the coming weeks. These forecasts are helpful, but they shouldn’t be the be-all end-all of your sales plan. Instead, try scenario planning. Rather than betting on 1 outcome, you model several. That way you’re ready if, for example, win rates dip or a new promo doesn’t land. Simply put, scenario planning helps you shift from “what did we miss” to “here’s the plan now.”

Outreach’s Andi Dominguez says scenario planning transforms reactive firefighting into strategic decision-making, creating multiple forecast pathways that prepare your company for different futures rather than hoping for a single one. Amid the uncertainty of the broader business environment, it keeps you proactive instead of panicked to changes you can’t predict but can plan for.

What goes into effective scenario forecasting? We share some insights from Dominguez in this issue of PromoPro Daily.

  1. Define clear objectives. Before building scenarios, Dominguez says you should first establish what decisions this forecast must inform. For example, maybe you’re setting quota levels or determining territories for sales leaders. She says your scenarios need different granularity depending on these questions. 

  2. Collect unified data. Fragmented systems kill scenario accuracy, Dominguez says. To build reliable models, you need one clean, connected source of truth. And if reps are still exporting spreadsheets and stitching numbers together, it’s not just slow, but it means that you can’t truly trust the forecast you’re running with.

  3. Identify key drivers. Not every variable matters equally. Dominguez suggests focusing on sales metrics that demonstrate measurable correlation with revenue outcomes. These could include win rates by segment and stage, average deal size or deal velocity.

  4. Develop distinct scenarios. To do this, Dominguez says you can build your first case using current performance metrics. Then, create the best case by improving those win rates by 15-25% and accelerating deal velocity by 20-30%. She says you can build a worst-case scenario by degrading those same metrics proportionally.

  5. Analyze resource implications. Remember that a scenario isn’t complete until you’ve mapped its operational requirements. Dominguez says if the best case requires a 4-to-1 pipeline coverage to hit your target or that the worst case extends sales cycles by 35%, what does that mean for your team?

  6. Create action plans. The deliverable in scenario forecasting is an action plan with triggers. For example, you might say that if pipeline coverage drops below 3-to-1 by month-end, activate the worst-case plan, which could mean extending sales cycles by 20% and shifting quota by 15%.

Follow the steps above as you dive into your scenario planning. It’s not about perfection but about being prepared for whatever happens.

Compiled by Audrey Sellers
Source: Andi Dominguez is the senior manager, product marketing at Outreach.