The U.S. Supreme Court today did not issue a ruling Friday on a challenge to President Donald Trump’s authority to impose tariffs using emergency powers. The country’s highest court had signaled a decision scheduled for January 9 but did not make clear which case that was in reference to. It did not turn out to be the highly anticipated ruling on Trump’s ability to invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to issue global tariffs.
The still-to-be-determined case centers on the scope of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a statute from the 1970s. Using IEEPA and executive orders, Trump began imposing two sets of tariffs in February:
- “Fentanyl” tariffs aimed at China, Canada and Mexico to encourage those countries to increase efforts to stop the flow of fentanyl and its precursor chemicals.
- Global “reciprocal” tariffs on imports from almost all countries to address trade deficits that Trump declared a national emergency.
A variety of news outlets and analysts described the court as “skeptical” of the government’s case during oral arguments, citing pointed questions and comments from the justices.
Several justices made comments suggesting that allowing the president’s IEEPA tariffs to stand might run afoul of the separation of powers spelled out in the Constitution. Chief Justice John Roberts noted that tariffs are a form of taxation, which is the responsibility of Congress, adding, “to have the president’s foreign affairs power trump that basic power for Congress seems to me to kind of neutralize between the two powers, the executive power and the legislative power.”
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The president requested a speedy review of the case in September, and the court agreed to expedited review. Today was the first opinion day of the year and the first chance for a ruling on the tariffs, but the justices have until the end of the court’s term in July to issue a ruling.
- SCOTUS has announced on its website that they may issue another ruling on Wednesday, January 14, but, once again, there is no indication whether that will be regarding the global tariff case.
What’s Next?
While many American businesses would welcome relief from the tariffs, a reversal by the nation’s highest court would add a new layer of uncertainty after a tumultuous year.
- The government could be required to refund the estimated $100 billion in duties collected so far – or the court could limit its decision to “prospective relief” that would only apply going forward.
- A ruling against the tariffs could unravel trade deals negotiated since the tariffs were announced.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection estimates that more than $133.5 billion was collected in tariffs in 2025.
It’s unlikely that a ruling against Trump’s global tariffs means the concept of foreign tariffs will actually go out the window. Instead, duties on foreign imports are more likely to be reimagined in other forms. As Politico reports, White House aides “have spent weeks strategizing how to reconstitute the president’s global tariff regime if the court rules that he exceeded his authority.”
- It’s also important to note that whichever way the high court rules, it will not affect the specific tariffs on steel and aluminum, which affect promo categories from drinkware to signage.
Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, who served during Trump’s first term, predicted “a split decision” from the nine justices. “I would be extremely surprised if the Court would rely on such nit-picking to create chaos in international trade and the securities markets,” he told CNN.
Tariffs and trade topped the list of concerns PPAI members brought to Congress during PPAI’s annual Legislative Education and Action Day in April. The Association will continue monitoring the issue and communicating to lawmakers the negative impacts of tariffs and economic uncertainty on promo businesses of all sizes.
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It’s nearly impossible to overstate how unprecedented and complicated a refund process might be when it comes to tariffs collected at this scale. It is more than likely to be a long, drawn out process, and importers may be best suited to look into filling out protests at the earliest possibility.
- Filing a tariff protest involves formally challenging a U.S. Customs and Border Protection decision within 180 days of liquidation to contest classification, valuation or other duties.
Please contact Rachel Zoch, PPAI’s public affairs manager, at rachelz@ppai.org if you have any questions about regulatory issues or government affairs.
