President Donald Trump has made no secret that he’s determined to keep tariffs in place. This week, his administration revealed the next likely levy, this time using Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.

Shortly after the February Supreme Court decision invalidating Trump’s wide-ranging tariffs enacted last year under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the Office of the United States Trade Representative announced a pair of investigations covering 60 economies.

Such investigations are required to establish a basis for tariffs under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. This week, USTR announced the results of its forced labor investigation – the broader of the two – finding that all 60 economies have failed “to impose and effectively enforce a prohibition on the importation of goods produced with forced labor” and that these practices “burdens or restricts U.S. commerce, and are thus actionable under Section 301(b) of the Trade Act.”

  • Results of the concurrent Section 301 investigation into potential overproduction have not yet been released.


New Tariffs Likely This Summer

Based on these findings, USTR has proposed a fresh set of additional Section 301 tariffs on the imports of goods coming in from 60 countries. Specifically, India, China, Japan, South Korea, Brazil and Switzerland will face 12.5% tariffs, with the other 53 countries set at the 10% baseline. The administration has also proposed separate 25% tariffs on Brazil, despite a trade surplus with that country.

These duties do not take immediate effect, as a public comment period on these proposed duties must take place first, as well as a hearing set for July 7.

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“Politically it’s very hard to argue that you shouldn’t go after forced labor and force countries to enforce forced labor laws on the books,” trade lawyer Ryan Majerus, a partner at King & Spalding and a former U.S. trade official, told the Associated Press. Majerus added that he expects the new Section 301 tariffs to be in place by the end of July.

Meanwhile, the administration is collecting 10% blanket tariffs under Section 122, which expire July 24. Two of three judges on a federal Court of International Trade panel ruled last month that these, too, were illegal, but the government can continue collecting them while that case works its way through the courts.

ICYMI: IEEPA Tariff Refunds In Progress As Courts Weigh Section 122 Duties

Trump Administration Challenges Blanket IEEPA Refunds

Also complicating matters is a new challenge from the administration to limit the scope of refunds for the invalidated IEEPA tariffs. U.S. Customs and Border Protection launched its online refund portal on April 20 and announced at the end of May that it had finalized $20.6 billion in tariff refunds so far.

  • The government owes importers an estimated $166 billion in IEEPA refunds overall.


However, the Trump administration intends to appeal the order to pay refunds across the board, arguing that the judge lacks authority to order tariff refunds for importers that did not file suit in the trade court. This challenge could create chaos in a process already well underway, raising new questions about whether all importers will be repaid, how quickly refunds will move and what will happen to billions of dollars tied up in older import entries.

ICYMI: CBP Issues Over $20B In IEEPA Refunds In First Month

In short: Importers face a mixed landscape, as refund money is flowing but legal uncertainty remains. About $39 billion in potential refund payments may depend on whether older, finalized entries can be refunded without case-by-case lawsuits or further court orders.

PPAI will continue to monitor this issue and provide updates.