Online sales are expected to set a record this holiday season, reaching $107.4 billion in Adobe Analytics’ forecast, a 13.8 percent increase over last year’s sales. In comparison, in-store retail growth is expected trail 10 points behind. Adobe predicts this year’s Cyber Monday, the Monday after Thanksgiving, to be the largest online shopping day in history, generating $6.6 billion in sales, 16.5 percent growth compared to last year.

Sales on Thanksgiving Day are expected to increase 15 percent year over year to $2.8 billion, and one out of every $6 this holiday season will be spent between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, leading to $19.7 billion in sales.

While large retailers—more than $100 million in annual revenue—will see higher order values and desktop conversion rates than smaller retailers—less than $10 million in annual revenue—the latter are expected to have the mobile advantage with a higher average conversion rate (1.9 percent) by attracting more shoppers with an intent to buy.  The data also forecasts that shoppers will gravitate toward purchasing more lower-priced items online rather than big-ticket items. While toys and apparel saw a 39 percent and 20 percent unit growth respectively last holiday season, jewelry sales came in low, with a three percent decline in unit growth. These trends are expected to continue this season.

“This year’s recordbreaking online holiday shopping season is built on the strength of the big players,” says Mickey Mericle, vice president, marketing and insights, at Adobe. “We predict the biggest retailers with wide selections, easy shopping experiences and free shipping to drive online holiday growth this year. Still, there is opportunity for savvy small retailers to win, specifically with mobile experiences. As revenue growth plateaus, retailers will be competing hard for customers by offering steep discounts and providing a seamless customer journey.”