In April, President Donald Trump announced sweeping global tariffs, then quickly hit pause on levies for most nations, while ramping up duties on China. Since then, provisional agreements with China and the United Kingdom have been reached. Deals with more nations have been promised, but no details have materialized so far.

Now, with only a week to go until the president’s pause on tariffs expires on July 9, much remains unknown about what comes next. The ongoing uncertainty has roiled markets and stalled business growth, as companies struggle to adapt and plan ahead in the face of so many unknowns.


Trump said in an interview with Fox News that he doesn’t intend to extend the July 9 deadline but then said, “I could, no big deal.” Meanwhile, the administration continues to promise trade deals with additional nations, including India, Japan and others. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg Television, “We’re going to do top 10 deals,” and that other countries will follow later.

Here’s an overview of recent major developments:

Canada

On June 27, Trump announced via social media that the U.S. would immediately halt trade negotiations with Canada because of that country’s digital services tax.

  • A DST is a tax on tech company earnings in jurisdictions where they have no physical presence and otherwise would face little to no tax liability.


Two days later, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Canada is rolling back its 3% DST and introducing legislation to remove the tax entirely. This measure opens the door to continued trade and border security negotiations with the U.S., with a goal of reaching an agreement by July 21.

China

After April saw escalating tariffs between the U.S. and China, U.S. and Chinese officials in May reached a short-term agreement to lower tariffs on most Chinese goods to 30% for 90 days, while China agreed to cut tariffs on most American goods to 10% during the same period, ending in mid-August.

Progress has been made since then, with CNBC reporting on June 27 that the two countries “have confirmed details of a trade framework that seeks to allow rare earth exports and easing of tech restrictions.” Additional specific details have yet to be announced.

United Kingdom

The first country-specific deal to be reached following the April 2 tariffs announcement, the U.S trade agreement with the United Kingdom was announced in May, signed at the G7 summit in June and took effect on June 30.


European Union

In anticipation of Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement, the European Union announced an end to its suspension of tariffs on U.S. products starting April 1, with added counter tariffs on $28 billion of U.S. imports. However, these measures were paused on April 14 “to create space for continued negotiations.”


Talks have not produced any concrete agreements so far, but Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said in a June 27 news conference that the EU is ready for a trade deal and working toward an agreement before the deadline – but also prepared to move forward without a deal.

“Today, we received the latest U.S. document for further negotiations. We are assessing it as we speak right now,” von der Leyen said. “So, our message today is clear: We are ready for a deal. At the same time, we are preparing for the possibility that no satisfactory agreement is reached.”

Vietnam

Trump announced on July 2 that the U.S. has reached a trade deal with Vietnam. The U.S. will impose a 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports into the U.S. and 40% on goods transshipped through the country, and Vietnam agreed to zero tariffs on U.S. goods imported to the country.

“With Vietnam being a key alternate sourcing hub for promo, this could raise costs and disrupt supply chains,” says Alok Bhat, PPAI’s senior manager of research & advocacy.

The Promo Perspective

PCNA, PPAI 100’s No. 5 supplier, stocked up ahead of the tariffs to build deep inventory. Neil Ringel, CEO of the Pennsylvania-based company, told PPAI Media in May that he expects the current 30% rate on Chinese goods to drive costs even higher.

“We’re working closely with our factories to mitigate some of the impact, but these tariffs will inevitably affect pricing,” Ringel said. “While we’ve made strong progress through our efforts – including years of diversifying our supply chain and expanding our U.S.-made assortment – broad-based tariffs across foreign trading partners have made some cost increases unavoidable.”

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These cost increases are now impacting businesses of all sizes, from small distributors to global suppliers, ultimately affecting jobs, investment and product pricing throughout our industry.

“We advocate for a thoughtful approach – one that balances economic goals with the realities of supply chain dynamics,” says Drew Holmgreen, president and CEO of PPAI. “With support from our lobbying partners in Washington, we are in ongoing conversations with industry volunteers, trade groups and policymakers with the goal to ensure that any trade policies consider the full scope of their impact and allow businesses time to adapt.”

In the absence of details, it’s hard to predict what July 9 will bring. Ongoing negotiations suggest that multiple deals may be announced, but it’s also possible that few, if any, will come to fruition. PPAI and our partners in Washington will continue to monitor the situation and provide timely updates.

For questions or suggestions on regulatory or government affairs issues, please contact Rachel Zoch at RachelZ@ppai.org.